There was a time when some folks might have wondered if the Duke women’s basketball team —preseason favorites in the ACC, coached by Team USA leader Kara Lawson — was going to even make the NCAA Tournament.
In early December, those thoughts might have gone from a bubble to a boil when the Blue Devils lost by 16 points at home to LSU to fall to 3-6 on the season.
But since then, all Duke has done is win. The Blue Devils are riding an 11-game winning streak and are 9-0 in ACC play, looking much more like the team ranked in the top 10 to start the season.
The metrics like Duke too. The Blue Devils are 15th in NET, 18th in WAB (wins above bubble), ninth in Her Hoop Stats Rating and seventh on Torvik. It’s also worth noting that, if one measures by the NET of opponents played, Duke has played the fourth-toughest overall schedule in the nation and the toughest non-conference schedule among Power 4 teams. The selection committee could be forgiving when assessing the Blue Devils’ early season troubles, especially if they keep tearing through the ACC.
Duke is also probably going to have the chance to get about four more Quad 1 wins in regular season play in the ACC. The Blue Devils have to play Tobacco Road rival North Carolina twice and travel to Louisville. The opportunity is there for the Blue Devils to host NCAA Tournament games for the third time in Lawson’s tenure.
Here’s USA Today Sports’ projection of the top 16 seeds in the women’s NCAA Tournament as of Wednesday, Jan. 28:
1. UConn
2. UCLA
3. Texas
4. South Carolina
5. LSU
6. Vanderbilt
7. Louisville
8. Michigan
9. Iowa
10. TCU
11. Michigan State
12. Oklahoma
13. Tennessee
14. Maryland
15. Duke
16. Kentucky
In the hunt: Ohio State, Baylor, Ole Miss, North Carolina
Bubble Watch
Last Four Byes: Iowa State, Syracuse, Villanova, Utah
Last Four In: Virginia Tech, Clemson, Rhode Island, Arizona State
First Four Out: Virginia, South Dakota State, BYU, Seton Hall
Next Four Out: Miami, Colorado, Columbia, Davidson
Elsewhere in the ACC, the difference between the conference getting seven or 11 teams into the field of 68 rests on the bubble. Virginia Tech and Clemson both did themselves big favors last week as the Hokies extended their winning streak to five games and the Tigers picked up a key Quad 1 win by winning at Notre Dame for the first time since 2019.
Meanwhile, Virginia and Miami need help. The Cavaliers are 37th in NET, which is solid, but are 59th in WAB. Hurting the ‘Hoos are two things: they don’t have any Quad 1 wins and they have a Quad 4 — read: bad — loss. That blemish on their resume came in November when they lost at home to UMBC. It sure feels like Virginia should stop scheduling the Retrievers in any form of basketball.
Miami is in a similar situation in that there’s nothing on the Hurricanes’ resume to brag about. One could argue their two best wins are against Davidson and Virginia Tech. Losing to Iowa and Oklahoma State by a combined six points on neutral courts could really sting on Selection Sunday.