- Duke won the ACC championship with an 8-5 record.
- Despite winning a Power Four conference championship, Duke doesn’t look like it will make the playoff due to its weak resume.
- With Duke’s win, all signs point to James Madison getting a spot in the College Football Playoff field.
Bring on the College Football Playoff chaos.
Get ready for even more drama to determine who will make the 12-team field with five-loss Duke upsetting No. 16 Virginia 27-20 in overtime of the ACC championship game.
There was plenty of confusion when the regular season was over and the ACC tiebreakers determined the Blue Devils qualified for the conference championship. Even though they had non-conference losses to Illinois, Tulane and Connecticut, they were one of five teams that went 6-2 in conference play and the tiebreakers went in their favor.
It wasn’t crazy to say it felt undeserved, especially since Duke would play a Virginia team that three weeks prior, routed the Blue Devils at their own stadium.
But it was far from the same story. Duke used 15 plays and nearly 10 minutes to march down the field on its opening drive for a touchdown. Virginia scored a touchdown early in the second quarter, and Duke responded with another touchdown to take a 14-7 lead at halftime.
After both teams traded field goals in the third quarter, Duke’s defense got a key interception in Virginia’s territory with seven minutes left. The Blue Devils were able to kick a field goal to make it a two-score game, but the Cavaliers came back and tied it in the final minute to force overtime.
Duke opened overtime with the ball and on a 4th-and-goal, quarterback Darian Mensah found Jeremiah Hasley for the score. On Virginia’s first play of extra time, a trick play turned disastrous as Duke’s Luke Mergott intercepted Chandler Morris’ pass to end the game.
Can Duke make CFP after winning ACC championship
With its first outright ACC title since 1962, Duke is the conference champion of a Power Four conference, which in a usual season would be guarantee to make the playoff.
But there’s nothing guaranteed for Duke to be in the field, and it doesn’t look like the Blue Devils will be making it for the first time in school history.
Heading into Saturday, Dec. 6, Duke had a 0% chance of making the playoff, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Simply put, Duke being a five-loss team greatly hurts its chances. A five-loss team has never made the field, and Duke’s resume is far from ideal, with two losses to Group of Five teams. The win over Virginia in the ACC title game was its first ranked win on the season.
Duke’s win actually benefits No. 19 James Madison, which looks like it will be in the playoff as the Sun Belt champion. The Dukes − not Duke − are No. 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings, and the field is determined by the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large teams.
Duke was not ranked in the US LBM Coaches Poll or the College Football Playoff rankings going into conference championship weekend. By the end of day, the current five highest ranked conference champions are:
- No. 2 Indiana (Big Ten)
- No. 3 Georgia (SEC)
- No. 4 Texas Tech (ACC)
- No. 20 Tulane (American)
- No. 25 James Madison (Sun Belt)
The committee would have to not only have to rank Duke, but put it ahead of a James Madison team that won a conference title. It seems highly unlikely, so James Madison are expected to get the spot as the fifth and final automatic bid. Even if Duke gets in the rankings, it won’t be near the at-large conversation.
It will be a disaster for the ACC. It especially hurts when Miami started the weekend at No. 12 in the CFP and faces a slim chance of getting in as an at-large spot. If the Hurricanes don’t get in, the ACC will be a Power Four conference that fails to get any team in the playoff.
Duke can try to prove why it should be in, but it’s looking like it won’t hear it’s name called in the bracket reveal.