The 2025 Formula 1 season began nearly nine months ago in Melbourne, Australia.
Twenty-three races have led the grid of 20 drivers and countless fans across the world to the site of the regular season finale: the Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi.
For much of the year, the battle for the drivers’ championship seemed to be between McLaren teammates Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. The team won its second consecutive constructors’ title two months ago behind what’s been the fastest car for most of the year.
Then Max Verstappen happened.
The four-time defending world champion’s been on a charge following the summer break. Verstappen managed just two wins in the first 15 races this year. But everything changed at the Italian Grand Prix as he’s rattled off five wins in the last eight events.
Those results, in addition to McLaren’s drop in pace, means the championship is undecided entering the final race for the first time since 2021. This year is an even more unusual situation: three drivers are still in the running for the title entering the finale for just the seventh time ever and the first since 2010.
Norris won the season finale in Abu Dhabi last season, but that is far from where we are now. It all comes down to Sunday’s race at the Yas Marina Circuit to decide whether a new name joins the list of F1 champions – Norris or Piastri – or if Verstappen joins even more rarified air in the sport’s history as a five-time champion.
Norris holds a 12-point lead over Verstappen and a 16-point lead over teammate Piastri. The winning driver earns 25 points so there are plenty of scenarios in which each driver could take the title. Here’s how each driver could win the F1 drivers’ championship:
Lando Norris title scenarios
Norris has the points lead entering the finale and with it has the most straightforward title scenarios. He can clinch the title if he finishes first, second or third – regardless of where Verstappen or Piastri finish.
If he fails to finish on the podium, here are all the other scenarios in which he can win the title:
- Norris 4th, Verstappen 2nd and Piastri anywhere
- Norris 5th, Verstappen 2nd and Piastri anywhere
- Norris 6th and neither Verstappen nor Piastri win
- Norris 7th and neither Verstappen nor Piastri win
- Norris 8th, Verstappen 3rd and Piastri 2nd
- Norris 9th, Verstappen 4th and Piastri 2nd
- Norris 10th, Verstappen 4th and Piastri 3rd
- Norris 11th or worse, Verstappen 4th and Piastri 3rd
Max Verstappen title scenarios
With his late-season charge and history of dominance, Verstappen certainly has momentum on his side. He’d make a historic comeback from more than 100 points back in the championship chase to take his fifth title.
To win the title, Verstappen must finish on the podium. Here are the scenarios in which he can win the title:
- Verstappen 1st, Norris 4th and Piastri anywhere
- Verstappen 2nd, Norris 8th and Piastri does not win
- Verstappen 3rd, Norris 9th and Piastri does not win
Oscar Piastri title scenarios
Piastri looked to be the dominant driver at McLaren for much of the season with four wins in the first six races. That form dropped off over time, though, and he hasn’t won a Grand Prix race since the end of August.
With the biggest deficit to the leader Norris, Piastri has the slimmest chances of winning the title. He needs to finish either first or second and get help to make that happen. Here are his scenarios to win the title:
- Piastri 1st, Norris 6th and Verstappen anywhere
- Piastri 2nd, Norris 10th and Verstappen 4th