An NFC North battle with playoff positioning in the balance. The two biggest television draws fighting for their postseason survival in the late-afternoon window. And the return of a star quarterback to top off the night.
Embracing tradition and highlighting the biggest brands while celebrating the new – hey, that Black Friday game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears, both 8-3, also seems enticing – was the NFL’s strategy regarding the most popular football weekend in the country. It couldn’t have worked out for the NFL any better and is a big reason why among those waking up Thanksgiving Day and experiencing immediate gratitude are the schedule-makers and the league’s broadcast partners.
Here’s why the league struck gold and could be in for record-setting viewership this Turkey Day:
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
For the past two seasons, the NFC North has been arguably the best division in football (and is really only rivaled by the NFC West in 2025). The Lions are grandfathered into the early window on Thanksgiving, and their success in the past three seasons has been a welcome development for the NFL. Adding a legacy brand in the Packers, with a fan base that extends beyond Wisconsin, expands potential viewership reach. This is a rematch from Week 1, a game in which the Packers overwhelmed the Lions, but what leads to the best ratings are well-contested games that come down to the wire, like when the teams played each other on “Thursday Night Football” last December in a 34-31 final that had three lead changes in the fourth quarter and a last-second field goal in Detroit’s win.
This time slot last year saw the calamity of the Bears’ final-minute drive, which seemingly helped contribute to former head coach Matt Eberflus’ firing a day later. What happens this year is anybody’s guess. The NFL just hopes you’re only just starting your football consumption for the weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount+)
Estimates this week have said this contest could eclipse 50 million viewers, which would shatter the NFL’s regular-season ratings record of 42 million from Thanksgiving Day 2022, when the New York Giants faced the Cowboys in this time slot.
Instead of a bad NFC East matchup, though, the league flexed its muscles by sending out its best draw: the Chiefs.
“Anybody who’s been watching football for the last few years knows that the Chiefs have almost kind of surpassed the Cowboys really as the bell cow,” Mike North, NFL vice president of broadcasting and planning, said on the “Up & Adams” show in May. “And this is what happens when you’re pop culture, part of the fabric of the country right now. And this is par for the course for the Chiefs.”
The top three games in terms of ratings this season have all been Chiefs games: Week 2 in a Super-Bowl rematch against the Eagles, Week 9 vs. the Buffalo Bills, and Week 11 against the Denver Broncos.
Quick aside: Any ratings records must be written about with the caveat that Nielsen, the ratings’ service, has significantly updated its measurement metrics in recent months to account for digital viewers and out-of-home viewers, both categories of fans the league and networks said were undercounted.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock)
The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback’s nine-game absence will end in Baltimore as his team, which has lost eight of its last nine games, looks to get back on track in the AFC North matchup.
Despite his diminished explosiveness this season, Lamar Jackson remains one of the most exciting players to watch in the league. The Ravens are ascending and always play well at home in prime time (21-4 under John Harbaugh).
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (Friday, 3 p.m. ET, Prime Video)
Amazon’s bread-and-butter has been divisional games, which, with “Thursday Night Football,” makes sense. A short week with familiar teams playing each other creates drama. Its first two ‘Black Friday’ games followed that blueprint.
But its decision to go with two major NFC markets on the company’s busiest day of the year was prescient – who could have imagined the Bears being 8-3, same record as the Eagles, and in first place in the NFC North?
The Eagles’ stagnant offense and disgruntled skill-position players – winning be damned – adds flavor to this one.
After these four games, the leftovers in the fridge will be more appealing than what the league has on tap for Sunday. A viewership record (or two) might go a long way in making that all OK this Thanksgiving.