In the immortal words of Semisonic, ‘every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.’ So it is that one phase of the men’s college basketball regular season comes to its conclusion this weekend with the final batch of on-campus games before tournament season.
While most men’s hoops squads know what they need to do from this point forward, there are still a lot of unknown factors that could alter the look of the NCAA Tournament bracket with Selection Sunday just one week away. In our final edition of the Starting Five breaking down the biggest games the biggest games of the weekend, we’ll focus our attention on teams still vying for top seeds with some others getting one last chance for a splashy win.
No. 8 Alabama at No. 1 Auburn
Time/TV: Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
When these fierce in-state rivals met last month they held the top two poll positions. Heading into the rematch, both are coming off losses, just business as usual in the ultra-competitive SEC this year. As it happens, the Crimson Tide have dropped two in a row thanks to a rough closing stretch that sent them to Tennessee just before hosting Florida on Wednesday. A third setback to the Tigers would likely end their bid for a No. 1 NCAA regional seed, but bear in mind they made the Final Four a year ago as a No. 4. As for Auburn, their place at the top of the bracket isn’t likely to change even after Tuesday night’s defeat at Texas A&M, though sweeping Alabama will be incentive enough. The Crimson Tide’s approach of just trying to outscore everyone works only as long as a high enough number of their three-point attempts are falling. Lately they haven’t been, and that is an issue against teams that pay more attention to defense – like Auburn. The Tigers will still have to make shots, but expect a more concerted effort from them on the boards after coach Bruce Pearl said his team was outtoughed by the Aggies.
No. 15 Michigan at No. 7 Michigan State
Time/TV: Sunday, noon ET, CBS
On the surface, the Spartans don’t have a lot on the line here. The Big Ten regular-season title is already secured, and a No. 2 NCAA seed seems a likely landing spot whatever happens over the next week. Then again, this is also a rivalry game, so the Wolverines will certainly have their attention. Michigan for its part hopes to snap a two-game skid and avenge the loss to Michigan State just 16 days earlier on its own floor in the process. The good news for the Wolverines is they’ve won their share of tight contests, but three of their five conference losses have been by double digits including the prior encounter with the Spartans. To avoid a similar outcome they’ll need to guard the perimeter, easier said than done against Michigan State’s numerous options.
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No. 6 St. John’s at No. 20 Marquette
Time/TV: Saturday, noon ET, Fox
As is the case in most of the power conferences, the regular-season championship is already decided in the Big East. But the Red Storm would nevertheless like to close with another quality road result before playing the conference tourney on its usual home court. The Golden Eagles have a slim chance of improving to a No. 3 seed next week at Madison Square Garden, but they could use a win here regardless as they haven’t earned a victory against a top-tier conference squad since toppling Creighton way back on Jan. 3. Marquette likes a fast pace, but that can work to its disadvantage during cold spells given its lack of interior size. St. John’s made its mark this year by crashing the offensive glass, and the team’s steady shooting improvement has made the Red Storm even tougher to beat.
No. 2 Duke at North Carolina
Time/TV: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Curiously, despite having dominated its league for most of the season, Duke is the one power conference leader that does not have its tournament’s top seed locked up heading into the final weekend. The Blue Devils can do so with a win, which would have the added benefit of pushing their archrivals closer to NCAA tournament oblivion. The Tar Heels to their credit have won their last six contests, though none of those results did much to enhance their postseason resume. A victory here obviously would, but to pull it off they’ll need to shoot the lights out and keep Ven-Allen Lubin and Jalen Washington out of foul trouble to have any chance on the boards. Duke comes in with an extra day of rest since posting its Monday’s blowout of Wake Forest Monday, and having veteran guard Tyrese Proctor back from a knee bruise only helps the young and extremely talented lineup.
No. 3 Houston at Baylor
Time/TV: Saturday, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Unlike North Carolina, Baylor is probably still on the right side of the NCAA tournament bubble. Even so, the Bears can feel much more secure about their position if they can pick off the Cougars, who have now claimed the Big 12 regular-season crown in each of their two years in the conference. Known for its stingy defense, Houston makes life even more difficult for opponents by connecting at a nearly 40% clip from three-point range, with L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp doing the bulk of the damage. Baylor hasn’t been quite as effective from the perimeter this season, but veteran big man Norchad Omier can help provide second chances.